Why is Iran reluctant to participate in the second round of talks with the US?

 Why is Iran reluctant to participate in the second round of talks with the US?

 

There is little time left for the two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States to end, but the second round of talks between the two countries in Islamabad is still uncertain.

The US President has announced that he will send a delegation to Pakistan led by his vice president JD Vance for these talks, and according to US media, Vance may arrive in Pakistan on Wednesday morning.

However, when the US vice president arrives in Pakistan, whether there will be anyone from Iran to sit at the negotiating table in front of him is a question that no one, including the host Pakistan, has a definite answer to.

US President Donald Trump said in an interview on Tuesday that Iran has no choice but to send a negotiating delegation.

He also said that he does not want to extend the ceasefire, which ends on Wednesday evening according to US time, and Iran will have to negotiate.

However, there are still no positive signals from Iranian officials about holding another round of talks with the United States.

Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri-Moghadam, says that Iran will not negotiate under any threat or pressure.

In his message on X, he wrote that "it is a fact universally acknowledged that a country with such an ancient civilization will not negotiate under any threat or pressure."

Obstacles to negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says that “provocative actions and repeated violations of the ceasefire” are obstacles to the continuation of the diplomatic process. He said that “threats and interference” against Iranian commercial ships and “contradictory statements and threatening language” about Iran are also hindering the diplomatic process.

After the first round of talks between Iran and the United States, which ended on April 12, it was clear that the talks had been fruitless, with the United States having a problem with Iran’s enriched uranium and not wanting Iran to ever build a nuclear weapon.

Iran had also said that it would not agree to talks until there was a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, talks between Tel Aviv and Beirut resulted in a ceasefire in Lebanon, but this is the only precondition Iran has met so far for talks. Iran also demands that its frozen assets be restored and sanctions lifted, although this demand may be a moot point in the negotiations.

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz was also a point that has been seen as an obstacle to any success during the negotiations, and this issue has become more acute since the first round of talks.

‘Iran does not want to appear desperate for negotiations’

Even in this situation, analysts who closely follow the US-Iran negotiations seem optimistic that the Iranian delegation will definitely reach Islamabad.

Associate Professor Mohammad Shoaib, an expert in international affairs affiliated with Quaid-e-Azam University, while speaking to BBC Urdu’s Rohan Ahmed, said that ‘as an Iranian, no one would want to appear desperate for negotiations.’

He believes that Iran’s internal politics also require that its leaders appear tough.

‘Conservative people in Iran are seeing that they can gain a lot from this round of negotiations.’

‘Their demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon has been met, now it is obvious that they will also try to get their further demands met.’

Mohammad Faisal, an expert in international affairs affiliated with the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, believes that President Trump’s attitude is also a reason for Iran’s hesitation.

He says, “When the ceasefire was reached, it was expected that there would be talks. Then the first round of talks took place and during that, Trump made a statement about Iran’s

“This damaged Iran’s confidence in the talks, so the Pakistani delegation also went to Tehran after the first round of talks, with the aim of reassuring them.”

Mohammad Faisal adds: “Iran does not want to go for talks at a time when it is being directly threatened.”

“This complicates the process of talks, in such an environment, any concession to the US can be seen as a defeat in Iran.”

In this situation, an important point in the statement made by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman on Monday is the word “so far.”

In his statement, he said that in Pakistan, “we have no plans ‘so far’ for the second round of talks with the US.”

This sentence indicates the possibility that Tehran may decide to go to Pakistan at the last minute, and even then, the journey between the two countries is only a few hours.

A tough test for Pakistan

The BBC's Paul Adams says that inside Islamabad's Red Zone there is a symbolic door with the words 'US-Iran deal' written on it. The Pakistani government stands slightly perturbed as it opens the door, aware that its new identity as a mediator is undergoing a tough test.

According to him, the scenario is ready but the guests have not arrived yet and the question is, will Vance and Qalibaf come again? Or will he come himself, as President Trump had hinted on social media?

According to Paul Adams, the situation does not seem to be favorable, but the parties do not want this delicate diplomatic process to be shattered by them by coming to Islamabad and the extraordinary intensity of the ongoing contacts suggests that some kind of agreement is being finalized behind the scenes, which may be an agreement in which both sides have some concessions, but which both can present as their own success.

The two-week ceasefire ends at the end of Wednesday. In such a case, an agreement could at least provide more time for negotiations. Could there be progress towards a mutual lifting of the Iranian and US naval blockades? That would be an important start.