Is the world heading towards World War III?

 Is the world heading towards World War III?

 

More than a month has passed since the US and Israel's war against Iran, and now concerns are rapidly rising that this ongoing conflict in the Middle East could spread further and turn into a major global conflict.

The effects of this war are not limited to Iran, but at least a dozen other countries in the Gulf are also being affected in one way or another.

These countries include the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Azerbaijan, the occupied West Bank, Cyprus, Syria, Qatar and Lebanon.

Against this backdrop, many people are discussing the possibility that the current conflict could go beyond the regional level and take the form of a global war?

When does a war become a world war?

"People generally assume that wars are fought with great care and planning, and that those who start them know exactly what they are doing," says Margaret Macmillan, a professor of international history at the University of Oxford in the UK.

"If you look at past wars, especially the First World War, the main reason for their start was accidents or miscalculations about the adversary," she said on the BBC's Global Story podcast.

"Sometimes it can be seen as a schoolyard fight," she said.

The role of leaders

 partnership, but Russia is not required to provide military support to Iran

According to Margaret Macmillan, history shows that wars are often started out of pride, a sense of prestige or fear of opponents.

She also points out from history that leaders can turn the tide of events.

She said that ‘in the First World War, the French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau said: It is more difficult to make peace than to start a war.’

According to Professor Margaret, it is often argued that when heavy losses have been incurred, leaders decide that they ‘have to continue the war until it is won.’

She says that pride can be a significant factor in leaders’ decisions. Citing Russian President Vladimir Putin, she said: “They clearly made a big mistake by invading Ukraine.”

According to Margaret, Putin said at the start of the invasion four years ago that his aim was to make Ukraine “demilitarized and de-Nazi,” but Russia is still saying that its military goals in Ukraine have not been achieved.

The UK Ministry of Defence estimates that 1.25 million people have been killed in Russia so far. According to the British Defence Secretary, the real number of deaths could be much higher than this estimate and is more than the total number of US casualties during World War II.

Margaret adds that leaders who refuse to admit defeat or retreat can prolong conflicts and make them worse.

She says that in the past, leaders like Adolf Hitler continued to fight despite certain defeat, because of their ideology, arrogance and self-deception.

Such decisions can spread limited conflicts into devastating wars.

Methods of reducing tension

Margaret Macmillan says diplomacy is crucial to reducing tension, “You have to know the other side and you have to be in touch with them.”

She explains that in the latter stages of the Cold War and because of the role of NATO, communication between all parties improved.

She says: “There are many examples where people said, ‘Wait a minute, this is getting too dangerous.’ They understood that the tension was getting too high and that it was necessary to lower the temperature.”

When major powers are involved, the presence of nuclear weapons is always an important element in de-escalation policies.

Professor Maiolo agrees. He says: ‘Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran will have to admit that they can no longer achieve anything.’

He explains that further war will not produce the desired results for either side, ‘there will need to be an easing of sanctions, some security arrangements and a way forward regarding Iran’s role in world politics.’

Professor Maiolo says that only through mediation can the war be stopped and then transformed into a more sustainable arrangement.