How did Iran surprise the US and Israel with its war strategy?

 How did Iran surprise the US and Israel with its war strategy?

When the US and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran on February 28, the main question at that time was how long this war would last?

Then the matter seems to have spread from days to weeks and now to months and there seems to be no clear deadline for the end of this war.

In his latest address to the American nation, President Trump, contrary to expectations, has not been able to present any clear plan, but he did say that ‘the United States is close to achieving its strategic goals in Iran’ and that ‘severe attacks on Iran will be carried out in the next two to three weeks.’

He also threatened to ‘push Iran back to the Stone Age’.

The global oil markets and stock markets, which had been hoping for his address to the nation, reacted immediately and negatively, and not only did oil prices increase rapidly on a global level, but Asian markets, including the US, also fell.

Reacting to the speech, former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Dalder said that Trump’s speech raised “doubts about the war’s objectives” and left many important questions unanswered, including why the US is still conducting military operations in Iran if, according to Trump, Iran’s nuclear capability, navy and missiles have been destroyed?

One thing is clear from President Trump’s speech: the war will continue.

Have the US and Israel come under pressure?

But

To find out, we have to go back to the early days of this war.

An airstrike on a girls' primary school in the Iranian city of Minab killed dozens of people, including girls.

This was the first time that European countries, including France, Germany, Britain, Italy and China, condemned the attack, and from there, voices began to be raised against the war.

Several other countries also strongly condemned the attack, blaming the United States and Israel for it. It should be noted that neither the United States nor Israel has yet admitted to being involved in the attack.

Overall, more than four weeks have passed since the fighting began and it has not ended, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the world is facing an oil crisis, and even after the killing of its top leadership, Iran is fighting the war and is offering its own conditions for ending the war.

As this war drags on, the United States and Israel are facing international criticism. There have also been major demonstrations against this conflict in the United States itself.

So, in this context, has Iran been able to create an environment against the US and Israel to some extent through its war strategy and diplomacy?

According to international strategic affairs expert Hepimon Jacob, many of the specific issues that the US and Israel had planned at the beginning of the war now seem to have been misjudged.

 that ‘Trump’s style and personality have been the main problem. Using diplomacy as a tool of deception, publicly humiliating heads of state, expecting allies to join this war and using the Geneva talks as a pretext to attack Iran, this is not acceptable to many people.’

He said that ‘Iran has increased the cost of the war for the United States and Israel many times over by targeting critical infrastructure using missiles and drones.’

He said that ‘Iran has presented this war as a regional conflict under a well-thought-out plan. Iran is not seeing this conflict as a bilateral conflict.’

‘This has benefited the United States and Israel from being attacked from different fronts such as Lebanon, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and they are having to spend their military resources in many directions. Along with this, Iran has also created a situation of uncertainty for the United States and Israel and they do not know from which direction the next attack will come at them.’

According to him, Iran’s strategy is not based on winning the war from the beginning but on tiring the opponents.

He says, “Apparently, Iran also does not want an immediate end to the war, but wants to maintain military, political and economic pressure over time, so as to make this war more expensive not only for the opposing side but also for their allies.”

Security and strategy expert C. Uday Bhaskar, speaking to the BBC, said, “Even the US and Israel themselves probably did not think that Iran would fight this war for so long. Trump thought that what they did in Venezuela, they would do the same in Iran, but the assassination of Ali Khamenei at the very beginning of the war united the whole of Iran.”

He said that Trump must have thought that the Iranian people would take to the streets against the government there, but the effect of Khamenei’s assassination was the opposite.

Uday Bhaskar also says that when Israel attacked Iran last year, Iran learned a lesson.

According to him, “Iran apparently distributed its weapons and leadership throughout the country at that time. It has given commanders and personnel autonomy in making decisions. And the plan has apparently been successful in that they can continue their operations even in the absence of top leadership.