The possibility of talks between the US and Iran puts Netanyahu in a difficult position
While there
are signs of talks between the US and Iran, Israel and Iran are also continuing
to attack each other.
On Monday,
Israel carried out ‘dozens’ of airstrikes in Iran. According to the Israeli
military, the strikes targeted the Revolutionary Guards and the Intelligence
Ministry’s command center in Tehran, weapons depots and air defense
installations.
In response,
Iran fired several missiles at northern and southern Israeli targets overnight.
The latest
strike in northern Tel Aviv left craters, damaged walls and broken balconies.
According to
local reports, several blocks of residential buildings were spared by the
Iranian missile attack. Six people were injured in the attack, but none
seriously.
A resident
near the site of the attack told the BBC that they had barely had time to reach
a shelter when the sirens sounded. They had just reached the door of their
house when the explosion ripped through it.
Recalling fleeing
the apartment barefoot amid shattered glass, he said that when he looked back,
he realized that the rubble had caught fire.
‘Netanyahu
doesn’t want a deal’
Donald Trump
has announced the start of talks with Tehran, but speculation continues about
his intentions. The White House has escalated military tensions in the past
under the pretext of talks, and thousands of American troops are still being
sent to the Middle East.
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However,
news of the talks also signals to some in Israel that the US president is
looking for a way out of the war and that the goals of Israel and its
superpower ally are now diverging.
“Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a deal,” says Michael Milstein,
a former Israeli military intelligence officer and head of the Center for
Palestine Studies at Tel Aviv University.
“There is a
kind of contradiction between Trump and Netanyahu’s positions. Netanyahu wants
to continue the war. He promised that this war would eliminate all threats to
Israel and perhaps even create conditions in Iran that would change the regime
there.”
“There is a
gap between Netanyahu’s promises and the realities on the ground,” says Michael
Milstein.
“If Trump is
really serious about finding a way out of this war, this situation is very
difficult for the Israeli prime minister,” he says.
“It’s a
Catch-22,” he says. Because if negotiations take place, Netanyahu will not be
able to escalate the war and he cannot even tell Trump that I will continue the
war without you. So, he will have to accept this decision.
Who has the upper hand in the negotiations?
Danny
Strinovich, an Iranian analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies
in Tel Aviv, says that the likelihood of a deal with Iran is low because the
two sides have very different positions and expectations.
He
said: “Iran believes it is winning, so it will demand guarantees and
compensation for damages. On the other hand, Trump is thinking that Iran will
accept all the US demands as soon as the talks begin.”
According
to him, to reach an agreement, Trump and Netanyahu will either have to change
the Iranian regime or give up their demands.
Danny
says, “This regime will not surrender. What they did not give the US before the
war, they will not give after the war. They have control of the Strait of
Hormuz, a vital passage for oil shipments. And they think they have the upper
hand in the negotiations.”
Trump
had threatened to “destroy” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not
opened within 48 hours. But when Tehran threatened to retaliate against
U.S.-linked energy facilities in the region, Trump called for talks before the
48-hour deadline expired.
That
may have bolstered Iran’s confidence.
Whether
Donald Trump’s goal is to stabilize energy markets, divide the Iranian
leadership, or buy more time for a new military strike, analysts say; he has
little to lose by showing willingness to negotiate.
One
observer told me that he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump woke up Friday morning
and launched another attack on Iran.
The
war now appears to be hanging between surrender and escalation. Neither side
has yet been weakened enough to agree to the enemy’s terms.
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