How did Pakistan become an unexpected mediator in the Iran war by winning Trump's trust?

 How did Pakistan become an unexpected mediator in the Iran war by winning Trump's trust?

Many people were surprised by Pakistan’s efforts to resolve the conflict after the US and Israel attacked Iran. But perhaps there is no reason to be surprised.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to Pakistani Army Field Marshal Asim Munir as his ‘favorite field marshal’ in the recent past. President Trump has also said how Asim Munir ‘understands Iran better than many people.’

Pakistan is not only a neighbor of Iran, with which it shares a 900-kilometer border, but the two countries also have deep cultural and religious roots in addition to ‘brotherly relations’.

At the same time, there is no US military base in Pakistan.

And unlike the traditional countries (Qatar, etc.) that generally play the role of negotiator in the Gulf, Pakistan has not yet been pushed into this conflict. And now Pakistan is playing an important role in ending the war between the US and Iran, which is also in its own interest.

But despite all this, questions still remain as to why a country that is itself embroiled in conflict with two of its neighbors, India and Afghanistan, has offered itself to resolve this major global conflict.

Pakistan is currently bombing Afghanistan, and tensions with India led to fears of nuclear tension in the region last year.

Pakistan has so far walked a tightrope in the recent Iran dispute, sending messages between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan hosted a meeting of foreign ministers of Muslim countries on Sunday and has been holding telephone calls to resolve the dispute at the diplomatic level.

On Tuesday morning, Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister also left for a crucial visit to China.

A lot to lose

Pakistan is heavily dependent on imported oil, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC that if there is one country outside the Middle East that could be affected by the conflict, it is Pakistan. So Pakistan wants the conflict to end and wants to do everything it can to de-escalate the tensions.

The Pakistani government increased the prices of petrol and diesel by about 20% since the conflict began, in early March, and introduced other government-level measures to save fuel.

Farhan Siddiqui, a professor of political science at the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi, says that if the war continues, it could greatly increase Pakistan’s economic problems.

He says that there are also fears in Pakistan that if the war drags on, it may have to activate the defence agreement with Saudi Arabia that was signed in September last year. Under the agreement, ‘aggression against one country will be considered aggression against another country.’

According to him, this raises the question of what Pakistan will do if the conflict continues and Saudi Arabia also officially joins the war?

Professor Siddiqui says that ‘the problem is that if we are asked by Saudi Arabia to join this war, our entire western border will become unsafe.’

Pakistan is already fighting a war with Afghanistan. Islamabad alleges that the Afghan Taliban are sheltering terrorists on its soil, but the Taliban government denies these allegations.

Pakistan’s stance on not engaging in diplomacy on the Afghanistan issue has been that it has been forced to take military action after years of failed attempts to resolve the issue through diplomacy.

But Siddiqui says that opening another front is not the only problem for Pakistan, but the feelings within the country regarding the Iranian leadership are also a major reason for Pakistan not to get involved in the conflict.

It should be noted that the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the US and Israel's attack on Iran sparked a strong reaction in Pakistan.

The benefit of improving international image

Michael Kugelman says that Pakistan is very sensitive to the criticism that it does not have much influence and influence at the international level. According to him, "I do not think that Pakistan is presenting itself as a mediator for this reason alone, but that could also be a reason."

Maleeha Lodhi says that there is no doubt that this is a diplomacy in which a lot is at stake.

According to her, there is a lot of risk and a lot of reward. If this effort is successful, it will take Pakistan very high in the game of international diplomacy.

“Pakistan is making sincere efforts and if they don’t succeed, then it won’t be a failure of Pakistan’s capabilities, but you will be blaming someone who is completely unreliable,” she says.

But Kugelman has a different opinion. According to her, if the talks fail, Pakistan will also face repercussions.

According to her, “If the talks fail and then the parties start fighting more intensely, then people will understand that the parties took some time to think about this conflict further and Pakistan could not understand these intentions.”

Unconventional diplomatic game

It is not yet clear which side the camel of the negotiations will sit. But one thing is clear: Pakistan has used this issue to further strengthen its relationship with President Trump.

Maleeha Lodhi says that what Pakistan did for President Trump by nominating President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, giving him credit for ending the war with India and handing over the mastermind of the Kabul airport bombings to the US was very important to Trump.

Kugelman says that Pakistan is ready to play an unconventional diplomatic game, unlike India.

He says that the approach adopted by the Pakistani leadership to appease President Trump has shown its work and has helped Pakistan improve its relations with Washington.

According to him, Pakistan has now emerged as an attractive facilitator and mediator in the eyes of the Trump administration.

But the card of relations with the US is not enough for Pakistan. Professor Siddiqui says that Pakistan has realized that adapting itself to the times is the way forward in regional diplomacy.

He said, “In the kind of world we are seeing today, middle powers feel more comfortable working with big powers.”

According to him, the reasons why Pakistan is considered suitable for resolving this conflict are that it does not have a reputation for being pro-Israel and pro-American

But Pakistan still faces many questions and any peace agreement to resolve this conflict seems far-fetched.

Kugelman says that the chances of any peace agreement are not very high, because the gulf of mistrust between the United States and Iran has become very wide and the demands of the two countries also conflict with each other.

According to him, it will be more difficult for Pakistan if this plan does not succeed, then what will be the way forward.