A 'lips and teeth' relationship with China and a 'nuclear hostage' neighbor: Why is North Korea 'fearless' despite the Iran war?

 

A 'lips and teeth' relationship with China and a 'nuclear hostage' neighbor: Why is North Korea 'fearless' despite the Iran war?

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un must have had some complicated thoughts after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran.

North Korea quickly condemned the attack and called it an “unlawful aggression”. This is because Iran and North Korea have had an “anti-US frontline blood alliance” since 1979, under which the two countries have also cooperated in the development of missiles.

A former North Korean diplomat told the BBC on condition of anonymity that Iran is the main destination for North Korea’s weapons. However, analysts say that two things put North Korea in a much more advantageous position than Iran./

Nuclear weapons and China.

During the 2003 Iraq war, then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il disappeared from the scene for 50 days. According to South Korean intelligence, he spent most of his time in a bunker at the Samjeon compound, 600 kilometers from the capital, Pyongyang.

But Kim Jong-un, by contrast, has not disappeared from public view, even after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Jang Yong-seok, a former director of South Korea's National Intelligence Service, says that such a mixed response reflects North Korea's growing confidence in its own power.

Nuclear Power

North Korea is a de facto nuclear power, with US President Donald Trump even saying in 2025 that North Korea is 'some kind of nuclear power' with nuclear weapons.

According to Jang Ji-hyang, a Middle East expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, after the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran also agreed to limit its uranium enrichment. Iran also relaxed the visits of IAEA inspectors, which greatly slowed down its nuclear program.

But after Trump withdrew from the deal, Iran also limited the visits of International Energy Agency inspectors to nuclear facilities.

According to the IAEA report released last month, Iran had ended all cooperation with the agency after the US and Israeli attacks in June last year.

But on the other hand, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and another test three years later, while by 2017, North Korea had conducted five more nuclear tests.

At the time, North Korea was eager to talk to the United States, leading to two historic summits between the two leaders in 2018 and 2019. Kim Jong-un wanted international sanctions lifted and offered to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear power plant. But Trump wanted more and the talks eventually collapsed.

Jenny Town, who heads the Korea program at the Stimson Center, a U.S. think tank, says North Korea now appears confident, as the war in Ukraine has brought it closer to Russia, which provides it with much-needed economic and military support.

But Trump and Kim appear to have a good relationship, with the U.S. president praising Kim Jong-un as recently as last year.

Town says Kim Jong-un will sacrifice nothing to improve relations with Trump.

Despite North Korea’s condemnation of the Iran war, it has not publicly made any sarcastic remarks about Trump. Last month, North Korea said at a ruling party congress that it wanted good relations with the United States if its status was respected, a gesture that seemed to keep the door open for talks.

China, Russia and the ‘Nuclear Hostage’

Geography also favors North Korea. It shares a border with China, which sees it as a key bulwark against the United States and its ally South Korea.

If the North Korean regime falls, China could see a mass exodus of refugees. This is why the relationship between the two communist countries has historically been described as ‘lips and teeth’.

Under a 1961 mutual defense treaty with North Korea, China has promised to protect it if it is attacked. It is the only such treaty that Beijing has signed.

He says this does not mean that China always sees North Korea as a good ally, as its nuclear proliferation is destabilizing the region.

According to Jang Yong-seok, a researcher at Seoul National University, China may not be too happy to see North Korea's growing ties with Russia, especially since the two countries signed a defense agreement in 2024. Nevertheless, he says that North Korea has strategic interests with China and that China is very strong in its strategic interests and Kim Jong-un is well aware of this.

Jang Ji-hyang says North Korea is also holding South Korea and Japan “nuclear hostages” because of their geographical proximity.

The two Koreas are separated only by a demilitarized zone, which is about 250 kilometers long and four kilometers wide, with their capitals only 200 kilometers apart, he says.

This means the civilian metropolitan area is within North Korea’s direct strike zone. There are questions about whether South Korea, like Israel, would be able to stop missile or rocket attacks.

Japan is also in North Korea’s direct strike zone, and North Korea has regularly fired missiles into the Sea of ​​Japan during its tests.

The two Asian countries have about 80,000 US troops stationed there, while 50,000 US troops are in the Middle East.

Alan Kim of the Korea-US Economic Institute, a Washington, D.C. think tank, says the Iran war has likely given Kim Jong-un the strong impression that Ali Khamenei was “helpless because he didn’t have nuclear weapons.” Towne agrees, saying that “North Korea may have suffered a lot over the years in acquiring a nuclear deterrent capability, but in such a situation, Kim Jong-un is confident that he made the right decision, knowing that the risk of attacking a nuclear-armed country is very high.” In moments like these, Kim Jong-un is almost certain that he made the right decision, knowing that the risk of attacking a nuclear-armed country is very high.