The hidden truth behind Xi Jinping and Putin's smiles and closeness

 

The hidden truth behind Xi Jinping and Putin's smiles and closeness

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin look like best friends.

Xi Jinping was seen standing to Putin’s right as a strong ally as the two countries’ armies paraded together in Moscow to mark the end of World War II.

Hours earlier, Xi Jinping had described the relationship between the two countries as “unbreakable” and said that Russia and China are “iron friends.”

This was President Xi Jinping’s 11th visit to Russia since he became president in 2013. The two heads of state have met more than 40 times on various occasions.

President Putin has already announced a visit to China later this year. But there is much more to this close relationship.

“We’ve seen the two heads of state together many times, but they can be friends at one point and opponents at another because there’s competition in their relationship,” says Matthew Bollon of the Center for European Policy Analysis.

“We’re only impressed by the symbolic things, but it’s interesting to see the real relationship,” he says.

The truth is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is treading carefully. Russia is a key ally of China, but its global reputation has suffered after the invasion of Ukraine.

It’s crucial for Beijing that its friendship with Moscow does not alienate other allies, especially at a time when it is itself fighting a trade war with the United States.

China has been trying for months to improve relations with Europe. These efforts have intensified since Donald Trump became president.

Beijing has apparently sought to portray itself as a solid global ally against a US government that is hard to predict what it will do next. And earlier this week there were signs that China’s efforts were paying off.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa exchanged messages on Tuesday with President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to mark 50 years of bilateral relations.

Beijing’s closeness to Moscow and Russia’s economic support are obstacles to the partnership between Europe and China. China has so far refrained from condemning its old friend Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, but has instead spoken of ending the “crisis.”

If President Xi Jinping appears to be too close to Putin, the desire for friendship with Europe could sour.

A message to Trump

Trump has sought to end the war in Ukraine quickly since taking office, citing his personal relationship with Putin. Analysts have since questioned whether the US is trying to create a rift between China and Russia.

President Xi wants to tell Trump that this is not possible. Xi Jinping said in an article in Russian media that “any attempt to undermine our friendship and trust will be thwarted together.”

The Russian and Chinese presidents, reacting to Trump’s plan for a missile defense system called “Golden Dome,” said it would be like filling a vacuum with weapons. Both leaders are envisioning an alternative world order to American hegemony.

But Xi knows that while China is a world power, Russia’s power and influence are limited. The two are not equal in this regard.

The war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s economy as well as its defense capabilities. Western sanctions have increased Moscow’s dependence on Beijing and weakened Russia globally.

“Russia needs China more,” says Bolon.

Looking at the tanks in Moscow’s Red Square, Putin can certainly rely on his friend and help each other if necessary. But behind the statements, the smiles, the handshakes, lie the seeds that could fuel differences between the two in the years to come.