Putin welcomes ‘dear friend’ Xi for hours of talks at the Kremlin

 The relationship between Russia and China could be a source of trouble for India.

China-Russia relations are strengthening:

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said in the Lok Sabha on February 2 that China and Pakistan have come together because of the wrong strategy of the Modi government. Accusing the Modi government, Rahul Gandhi said China and Pakistan have come together because of the 'wrong strategy' in Jammu and Kashmir and the government has committed a big crime against the people of the country.

It is now being said that the Ukraine crisis has brought Russia and China closer together. The rapprochement between China and Pakistan is already not good news for India. India has border disputes with both countries and India has fought wars with both. Russia is traditionally considered India's friend and ally, but in the global situation arising from the Ukraine crisis, China has become more important to Russia.

India cannot underestimate the importance of China. In such a situation, the closeness of China and Russia is considered natural. Addressing the annual opening ceremony of the Raisins Dialogue Session in New Delhi on Monday, European Union President Ursula Vaughan said that friendship between Russia and China knows no bounds. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar were also present when Ursula was speaking.

Difficult situation for India:

  Explaining the relationship between China and Russia, the head of the European Union said that 'both countries have declared that their friendship knows no bounds.' In February this year, he said that there is no sector in which there is no cooperation between the two countries. What can we expect from both of them in the new international relations after Russia's invasion of Ukraine when both have expressed their intentions?'

He said that Europe's strategy has not been successful in the case of Ukraine. He added that imposing sanctions on Russia is not the only solution to this problem. As tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, there were fears that the situation would create a difficult situation for India.

There were fears that the Ukraine crisis would deepen the friendship between Russia and China, which would not bode well for India. Many experts believe that the crisis in Ukraine has brought Russia closer to China. Experts believe that India tried to keep itself neutral in the Ukraine crisis due to this fear.

As many times as there was a vote against Russia in the United Nations regarding Ukraine, India did not vote in favor of it. India did not even condemn the attack on Ukraine in the name of Russia. Despite the pressure from Western countries, India has not changed its strategy towards Russia. But will this strategy of India succeed in preventing China and Russia from coming close.

Russia's growing dependence on China:

Relations between China and Russia have developed over the past 30 years. A virtual summit was held between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 28 last year. The summit was held on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Treaty of Good Neighbor and Friendly Cooperation. After the summit, a joint statement was issued by President Putin and Xi Jinping.

India did not condemn the attack on Ukraine in the name of Russia. "We do not have the kind of military and political alliances that existed during the Cold War," the joint statement said. Our relationship is beyond opportunism and we do not interfere in each other's internal affairs.

Relations between Russia and China have been steadily strengthening since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The border dispute between the two countries has been going on since the Soviet era. In 1969, there were also clashes between the Soviet Union and China over a border dispute. However, after 2001, cooperation between the two countries increased. Relations between the two countries have increased under the regimes of Xi Jinping and Putin.

Four main factors are often mentioned in the strengthening of relations between Russia and China. There is a 4200 km long border between the two countries. Both countries want peace on the border. Since 1989, Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping have tried to resolve the border dispute. In 2006, the border dispute between the two countries ended and all obstacles in bilateral relations were removed.

Economy and Business:

The economy of the two countries is also interconnected. Russia is rich in natural resources but needs technology. China is helping Russia in this matter. China has announced that it will make its economy carbon-free by 2060. But for that, it will have to switch from coal to natural gas. Trade between the two countries was $10.7 billion in 2001 and will increase to $140 billion in 2021. Apart from this, the two countries are working together on many projects.

The Siberian gas pipeline is operating at a full capacity of 36 billion cubic meters per year. In addition, there is Siberia 2, which has a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year. India and Russia are very close friends but in the current situation, Russia needs China.

China is busy ensuring its access to Russia by land, so Russia wants to reduce its dependence on the European market.

There is no similarity in the political and governmental systems of both countries, but the governance in both countries is centered on personality. There is no one to challenge Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China. Both do not interfere in each other's domestic affairs. Neither does China discuss the imprisonment of Russian opposition leader Alexei Nasally, nor does Russia discuss human rights violations in China's Xinjiang province as well as in Hong Kong. The relationship between Putin and Jin Ping can be said to be based on trust on a personal level.

Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Both countries work together on global issues in the UN Security Council. Both countries are on the same page at the United Nations against the US and its allies. The two countries are also working together on weapons development. Military exercises between the two have also expanded. Both countries are united against the West. Russia's dependence on China has increased due to increasing sanctions by the US and Europe.

Is Russia-China friendship moving beyond borders?

Does Russia and China's Friendship Really Cross Borders? Alexandre Gabo is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He wrote on December 31 last year that despite the depth of the relationship between the two countries, it also has its limits.

He wrote that 'the most important thing is that both countries are very sensitive about their strategic autonomy, so the two countries cannot agree on a system of security guarantees between them as the United States has created an alliance like NATO. There is also an alliance on security guarantees in the Pacific. The global security interests of the two countries are also different. For example, China did not support Russia in Crimea. China also did not support Russia's military operations in Syria and Africa. Russia does not support China too aggressively in the Taiwan issue.

 

Alexandre Gabio says that there are limits to the relationship between the two countries on the economic front as well. "Historically, there have been no major investments by Chinese companies in Russia," he wrote. The investment climate in Russia is not the same. The bilateral trade between the two countries is increasing, but the situation remains the same.

Global Arms Exports:

 

It is also being argued that the friendship between China and Russia is not equal. China's share of Russia's international trade was 10.5 percent in 2013, which will increase to nearly 20 percent in 2021. China's share will increase further due to sanctions imposed by western countries in the coming days. On the other hand, China's economic dependence on Russia is very minor.

By the end of 2021, Russia's share of China's trade was only 2.4 percent. It is being said that Russia needs China more and China needs Russia less. India and Vietnam's relations with China are not good but relations with Russia are very good. Russia's relations with India and Vietnam have been good since the Soviet era.

Russian arms sales to India have increased over the past five years. India accounted for 23 percent of Russia's total global arms exports between 2016 and 2020. In addition, Russian arms sales to Vietnam have increased since the 1990s.

"Historically, China has been reluctant to receive Russian weapons from India and Vietnam," Alexander wrote. In a changing security system, China may pressure Russia to arm India and Vietnam. Currently, China is not in a position to prevent Russia from supplying arms to India, but it may be in the future. China's presence in Central Asia has grown rapidly over the past few years. The Chinese market is expanding in the Central Asian market and this is a concern for Russia.

What will India do?:

Archana Upadhyay, head of the Center for Central Asia and Russian Studies at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, says that Russia cannot abandon India for China, nor can India abandon Russia for the West. She says that the friendship between Russia and China does not cross borders. Relations between the two countries have deepened in the recent past, but their needs also collide. India clashed with China in Galwan valley in which Chinese and Indian soldiers were killed but Russia did not stop supplying arms, Russia has never left India and I think it will not.

Archana Upadhyay says that the eyes of the West are fixed on the Indian market. "The West wants to eliminate Russia's role in India's arms needs, but India will not forget how the West imposed sanctions on nuclear testing," she says. How America supported Pakistan and adopted a dual policy on terrorism in India. Russia is our proven partner. India cannot leave him under any pressure. Russia is rich in natural resources and our cooperation in energy is going to increase in the coming days.'

Archana Upadhyay says that India's foreign policy is now free from pressure and the latest example is that Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar bluntly said in Washington that if America does something about human rights in India. . If India has views, then India also has views on human rights violations in America.

Archana Upadhyay says that for the first time, America was answered in its language. Apart from this, on buying oil from Russia, SJ Shankar said that as much oil as Europe buys from Russia in an afternoon, India buys it in a month.

Putin welcomes ‘dear friend’ Xi for hours of talks at the Kremlin