Did China prove to be the real winner in the recent conflict between India and Pakistan?

 

Did China prove to be the real winner in the recent conflict between India and Pakistan?

A four-day standoff between India and Pakistan earlier this month finally ended in a ceasefire, with both sides claiming victory, but it seems China’s defence industry has emerged as an unlikely winner.

The latest clashes began on May 7 when India launched strikes on “terrorist hideouts” inside Pakistan in retaliation for the April 22 killing of 26 people by militants in the tourist resort of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting militant groups, a charge Pakistan denies.

India dubbed its attack in response to Pahalgam “Operation Sindoor,” prompting military retaliation from both countries, including drones, missiles and fighter jets.

According to reports, India used French and Russian-made aircraft, while Pakistan used its own J-10 and J-17 fighter jets, developed in collaboration with China.

Both sides say their planes did not cross the border and fired missiles at each other from a distance.

Islamabad claims its fighter jets shot down at least six Indian aircraft, including India’s newly acquired French-made Rafales. Delhi has not yet commented on the claims.

Indian Air Force (IAF) Air Marshal AK Bharti, in response to a question, said that “casualties in war are normal” but he declined to comment directly on the Pakistani claim.

He added that “we have achieved our targets and all our pilots have returned home.”

India says it killed at least '100 terrorists' by targeting the headquarters of banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad organizations in Pakistan.

The true nature of the air war has not yet been revealed. Some media outlets have reported that the plane crashed in Indian Punjab and Indian-administered Kashmir, but the Indian government has not responded to them.

A report by the international news agency Reuters quoted US officials as saying that Pakistan likely used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to carry out air strikes on Indian planes.

Pakistan has also claimed that it achieved success by relying on Chinese weapons. According to some experts, this is being considered a success for Beijing's defense industry, while others disagree.

Some experts have called this situation a 'deep sec moment' for China's arms industry. It should be noted that in January this year, the Chinese artificial intelligence app 'Deep Sec' shocked American companies with its cheap technology.

"This air battle was a great publicity stunt for China's defense industry," retired senior colonel of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Zhu Bo told the BBC. "China has never had the opportunity to test its platforms in a combat situation before."

The Beijing-based analyst said the results of the air battle showed that "China has some systems that are second to none."

Last week, when news of the J-10 fighter jet's performance in the India-Pakistan clash emerged, shares in the Chinese aviation company Chengdu Aircraft, which manufactures the plane, rose by 40 percent.

However, other experts believe it is premature to declare the superiority of Chinese weapons.

It is not yet clear whether the Chinese aircraft actually out-gunned the Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft, particularly the Rafale, says Professor Walter Ledog of King’s College London.

“Standard military doctrine is that you first eliminate the enemy’s air defences and gain air superiority, then attack ground targets, but it seems that the Indian mission was not intended to provoke the Pakistani military,” he said.

Ledog believes that the Indian pilots were ordered to fly when Pakistan’s air defences were on full alert and their fighter jets were already in the air. The Indian Air Force has not given any details of the mission or its strategy.

Beijing has also not commented on the reports of the J-10 downing Indian aircraft, including the Rafale, but unconfirmed reports of the J-10 downing a Western weapon have sparked a wave of joy and pride on Chinese social media.

Carlotta Renaud, a researcher on China’s security affairs, says that while access to complete information is difficult, Chinese social media is full of messages of national pride and enthusiasm.

“Perception is more important than reality at the moment,” she said. “If you look at it from that perspective, the real winner is China.”

Pakistan and China have had friendly relations for decades. China is investing more than $50 billion in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Pakistani security analyst Imtiaz Gul says China played a decisive role in the recent India-Pakistan conflict. “China has taken Indian planners completely by surprise. They probably did not anticipate the depth of modern military cooperation between Pakistan and China.”

Experts say the performance of Chinese aircraft in combat is being closely watched in Western capitals as it could have far-reaching implications for the global arms trade. The United States is the world’s largest arms exporter, while China is fourth.

China sells weapons mostly to developing countries like Myanmar and Pakistan. In the past, Chinese weapons have been criticized for poor quality and technical issues.

According to reports, in 2022, the Burmese army had abandoned the JF-17 aircraft jointly developed by China and Pakistan due to technical faults. The Nigerian army has also complained about several technical issues in the Chinese aircraft.

It is also worth mentioning here that this is not the first time that India has lost its aircraft to Pakistan.

In 2019, after similar Indian air strikes on suspected terrorist targets in Pakistan, a Russian-made MiG-21 jet was shot down over Pakistani territory during a brief dogfight between the two countries, and the pilot, Abhinandan, was captured and released.

India later claimed that the pilot successfully shot down Pakistani aircraft, including a US-made F-16, before bailing out. Pakistan has rejected India's claim.

Despite reports of Pakistan successfully shooting down Indian aircraft, experts such as Walter LeDog believe that India hit very important targets inside Pakistan on the morning of May 10, but this fact did not receive much attention in the international media.

The Indian military says it launched missile strikes on 11 Pakistani air bases in a coordinated attack. This includes the strategically important Nur Khan airbase near the GHQ in Rawalpindi. The second major attack was on Bholari Air Base, located about 140 kilometers from Karachi.

Walter Ledog says that this time the Indian Air Force followed its own protocol. First, they targeted Pakistan’s air defense and radar systems and then focused on ground targets.

While Pakistan had defense systems like the Chinese HQ-9, Indian aircraft launched missile strikes on Pakistan.

According to Walter Ledog, these attacks appeared to be relatively accurate and limited to specific targets. The airbases’ runways were cratered. In his opinion, “If this conflict had been prolonged, I cannot say how long it would have taken the Pakistani Air Force to make these airbases operational.”

Without going into the details of the mission briefing, he said that the Indian military was left behind in the narrative race.

Pakistan maintains that it launched missile and air strikes on several Indian airbases in response to Indian airstrikes. New Delhi says the attacks did not harm any equipment or personnel.

When the US and its allies saw that the situation was getting out of control, they intervened and urged both countries to stop fighting.

 

Experts say this is a wake-up call for India, meaning it needs to see where it stands.

 

Beijing may not comment on the recent dispute between Pakistan and India, but it is serious about showing the world that its weapons systems are no longer inferior to Western standards.

 

New Delhi is aware that the aircraft China has supplied to Pakistan are one of the older models. Beijing has already added the J-20 stealth fighter jets to its system, which are capable of escaping radar.

India and China have a long-standing border dispute and have fought a war over it in 1962, in which India was defeated. There was also a brief skirmish in Ladakh in June 2020.

Experts say India is well aware that it will have to accelerate investment in its local defense manufacturing industry.

For now, it seems that China's defense industry is enjoying the success of its aircraft in the India-Pakistan conflict.