US-Iran peace deal: Trump's best birthday gift shrouded in uncertainty

 

US-Iran peace deal: Trump's best birthday gift shrouded in uncertainty

 

The announcement of the deal with Iran provided President Donald Trump with a very welcome birthday present, although it is shrouded in considerable uncertainty.

In his social media post announcing the deal, the US president said that ‘the Strait of Hormuz will be open to commercial shipping and the US will end its naval blockade.’

He mentioned the free movement of oil after the deal, writing, ‘Let the oil flow.’

It should be noted that on the night between Sunday and Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that after long negotiations, a peace agreement had been reached between the US and Iran and the parties had announced an end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

He added that the “official signing ceremony of this peace agreement will be held in Switzerland on Friday, June 19.”

President Trump added that unlike the “failures” of past US presidents, “I have achieved a great deal that will bring peace and security to the entire region.”

Such hyperbole is not new to Trump. His statements regarding the end of the Gaza war last year included words like “peace forever” and “the beginning of an era of faith, hope and God,” even though the realities on the ground were different.

Such high-level diplomatic agreements usually depend on the details, and details are scarce here.

In an interview with Fox News Sunday evening, Vice President J.D. Vance said that Iran never acquiring a nuclear weapon is “enshrined in the deal” and that the United States will be able to verify its compliance.

Some of these issues will be resolved in future negotiations and “technical” talks, which will take place during the 60-day extension of the current ceasefire.

But despite decades of efforts to get Iran to give up its nuclear program, this cannot be fully guaranteed.

Even if the United States believes that everything was achieved through this “memorandum of understanding,” there is still no guarantee that Iran will abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Further emphasizing this point, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement on Sunday saying that “final negotiations will remain postponed until the other side implements its commitments.” What these commitments are and how Iran views them will determine whether the deal survives.

Fears of deal breakdown and an unexpected element

With several days left before the official signing, Iran and the United States have time to work out key details to ensure the success of the deal, but there is also the possibility of it falling apart.

Another unexpected element is Israel. This has always been a three-way war, and Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that he was very angry with the Israeli prime minister because he ordered an attack on Lebanon this week.

President Trump said that the Israeli prime minister’s move could damage the deal with Iran.

But if Israel launches new military operations in Lebanon, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz again, putting the global economy at risk once again.

In his statement, US Vice President JD Vance also acknowledged the hardships Americans have suffered due to the increase in energy prices caused by the war.

He said that my main message is to thank the American people and promise that energy prices will start to come down.

How quickly this happens and to what extent it reduces overall spending for financially struggling Americans will determine whether the mounting political pressure on the Republican Party eases before the November midterm elections.

According to recent polls, Trump and his party are facing growing public discontent.

According to a YouGov poll, 63 percent of Americans are unhappy with the way he is handling the economy, while 57 percent believe the economy is getting worse.

However, a peace deal could help ease some of the economic pressure from the conflict, although it would not eliminate it entirely.

If gas prices do indeed start to fall, it could be a clear signal to Americans that things are improving.

This is a significant step back from the pre-war situation, even if Trump's big goals are not yet achieved and he still faces political risks at h