Has Iran emerged stronger than before?

 

Has Iran emerged stronger than before?

 

Both sides are claiming victory after the US-Iran deal was signed. Such claims, after more than 100 days of conflict, are proof of how badly both sides needed to get out of the conflict.

While the deal has stopped the fighting, it is also the starting point for the most difficult negotiations, negotiations that have already gone sour at the first stage.

Both sides are presenting the deal to their respective publics as a victory, but as our analysts say, neither has been able to fully convince their people, and critics on both sides say that their governments have made too many concessions to the opposing government.

For Iran, the deal with the US provides something else important besides a ceasefire: Tehran now has the opportunity to claim that not only did it not lay down its arms in this war, but that it has emerged from this conflict stronger than before.

From the beginning, Tehran’s primary goal was not to defeat the United States and Israel in the traditional military sense. It was to emerge from the conflict with not only the Islamic Republic of Iran intact, but also its leadership in power and its negotiating position intact.

The MoU allows Iran to claim that it has achieved these goals.

The obligations imposed on Iran as a result of the MoU, while significant, are relatively limited. Tehran has pledged to help make the Strait of Hormuz a safe trade route, no different from the situation before the war.

In addition, Iran has reaffirmed that it will not seek to acquire nuclear weapons and has agreed to engage in negotiations on the future of its highly enriched uranium and enrichment program. It should be noted that even before the war began, Iran had repeatedly said that it would not build nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, the obligations imposed on the United States under the agreement appear to be far broader.

According to the agreement, the United States will end the naval blockade of Iran (which was lifted last night), will ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports, will give Tehran access to its frozen Iranian assets, and will work with regional partners on a reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

Perhaps this is why critics of the government in Iran have been largely silent since the text of the memorandum of understanding was revealed. The agreement gives the Iranian leadership a chance to present itself as a success, they can claim that Iran’s sovereignty has been recognized, the US naval blockade is ending, sanctions relief is under consideration, and the agreement clearly mentions funding for reconstruction.

But this silence is unlikely to last long.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s initial reaction to the memorandum of understanding seems to be quite cautious. They have authorized the deal, but at the same time made it clear to Iran’s political leadership that it has been accepted at the behest of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

However, remember that the most difficult issues in this memorandum of understanding have not been resolved, but rather postponed.

Now, the negotiations will be held under intense pressure on issues such as the future of Iran’s enriched uranium, the size of its uranium enrichment industry, and the restoration of damaged nuclear facilities. This could be a problem for Tehran’s leadership.

For weeks, Iran’s state media, the Revolutionary Guards, parliament, and hardliners have been telling their supporters that Iran has defeated the United States and Israel. So public expectations are high. Critics could portray any agreement on enriched uranium or the nuclear infrastructure as if the Iranian regime had made concessions to the enemy even after victory.

But no agreement could have been just as dangerous.

Trump claims 'big win', critics announce huge concessions

According to him, it fulfills the main purpose of the US in starting this war, which is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.,Image source: Reuters

,Image captionAccording to Donald Trump, it fulfills the main purpose of the US in starting this war, which is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Donald Trump calls the agreement a 'big win' for the US. According to him, it fulfills the main purpose of the US in starting this war, which is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

He has achieved a success in the form of the recovery of the global economy due to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

When the conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, surveys in the US revealed that the American people were getting fed up with the rising prices of gasoline and the effects of the war on the country.

One of the reasons for Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election was the economic dissatisfaction of the American people at that time. The perception that the war the president has started is taking a toll on the economic well-being of ordinary citizens has become politically damaging for Trump.

Although he himself will not be a candidate in the November midterm elections, this anxiety could create further problems for his Republican colleagues. Several of these candidates are already facing growing resentment from potential voters who fear that the United States has become embroiled in a conflict that could drag on for a long time.

Against this backdrop, the deal gives Trump a breathing space and his political allies hope that he can portray himself as a leader who brought the conflict to a relatively early end.

But critics of the deal, including some members of the Republican Party, have already accused Trump of overcompensating.

At the heart of the debate is the promise to provide Iran with a $300 billion reconstruction fund.

Trump wrote in a statement on Truth Social that “the US is not paying Iran $300 billion. This is fake news.” He added that “the US has only had success, falling oil prices and victory.”

Although Trump and other officials in his administration have made it clear that the US will not pay this $300 billion, there is still unease among some within the party.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, generally considered a reliable ally of Trump, told the American magazine ‘The Hill’ that “history teaches us that giving billions of dollars to religious extremists who want to kill us is not a good idea.”

“I think the president is being given very bad advice.”

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson put it more bluntly.

“This is a very humiliating defeat for the United States,” he said on X.

The Trump administration has also had to admit that some of its goals are no longer priorities and were not even mentioned in the agreement.

For example, at the beginning of the conflict, Trump promised that the US military would “destroy their missiles and destroy their missile industry.”

In March, Trump promised that the US was working to ensure that “the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund and direct forces beyond its borders.”

But the agreement makes no mention of Iran’s ties to regional proxy groups.

Now, it appears that the Trump administration has backed away from that goal. Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters that the US “expects” Hezbollah to refrain from firing on Israelis.

He added that the ceasefire is “somewhat erratic” and that fighting can be expected to “suddenly flare up” at any time.

This could make the agreement unpopular with Republicans who see the US commitment to Israel’s security as an unwavering aspect of American policy.

Points 12-14: Monitoring and Final Negotiations

The final few points of the document detail how the agreement will proceed in practice.

They state that the US and Iran will establish a “mechanism” to monitor the implementation of the MOU and compliance with the future agreement, but what that will look like in practice is unclear.

After that, once the MOU is signed and implemented, the US and Iran will begin negotiations for a final agreement.

Finally, the MOU makes it clear that the final agreement will be ratified by a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.