Bangladesh elections have improved for Pakistan, Bangladesh has escaped India’s clutches

 Bangladesh elections have improved for Pakistan, Bangladesh has escaped India’s clutches

 

While potential Prime Minister Tariq Rahman is receiving congratulations from world leaders after the victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the Bangladesh general elections, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has also expressed his desire to work with the new leadership of Bangladesh.

In his statement on X, Shahbaz Sharif said that he ‘congratulates Tariq Rahman on the brilliant victory of the BNP in the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh.’

Shehbaz Sharif said that he looks forward to working with the new leadership of Bangladesh to further strengthen the historic brotherly and multifaceted relations and advance the common goals of development.

The Awami League government in Bangladesh under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina was considered anti-Pakistan and pro-India. But the situation changed completely after Sheikh Hasina left for India as a result of a popular uprising in August 2024.

The interim government of Bangladesh has taken forward its relations with Pakistan. Trade relations between the two countries have been promoted, while both countries have eased the issuance of visas and also resumed flight operations.

The head of the interim government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, has also been meeting Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif at various international forums.

Now, after the victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, there is hope for further improvement in relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

What is the significance of the results of the Bangladesh elections for Pakistan? How far will the new BNP government take its relations with Pakistan? Will there be a new alignment in the region and where will India stand in this whole situation?

‘Pakistan should worry about the time when it (Bangladesh) is no longer anti-India’

Some experts say that the BNP’s success is a positive development for Pakistan. But some observers say that it will not be so easy for the new Bangladesh government to move forward by spoiling relations with India.

International affairs analyst Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi says that relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh were non-existent during Sheikh Hasina’s government. But now a government is coming to power in Bangladesh that wants to have good relations with Pakistan.

‘In the past, when the BNP came to power, the Khaleda Zia government had friendly relations with Pakistan and now that series is going to be restored and the relations between the two countries will improve further.’

Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi said that Bangladesh and Pakistan will together promote stability and cooperation in South Asia.

Defense affairs analyst Ikram Sehgal says that both the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami are considered anti-India parties. Therefore, any anti-India party in Bangladesh will obviously be close to Pakistan.

Speaking to BBC, Ikram Sehgal said that Pakistan should be grateful that whatever India does on the diplomatic front against Pakistan, it suffers from it.

Ikram Sehgal said that at present there are anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh. But Pakistan should also worry that the new government may not develop its relations with India too much.

'Right now they are anti-India, but Pakistan should worry about the time when they (Bangladesh) will no longer be anti-India.'

 ‘Two common neighbors’ to the enemy: Bangladesh’s growing proximity to Pakistan and India’s ‘security problem’

 

It should be noted that after the Taliban government came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, it was being hailed as a boon for Pakistan. Some political leaders in Pakistan also welcomed the Taliban government. But with the passage of time, relations between the two countries have cooled and the Afghan Taliban have established close ties with India.

Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi says that no government in Bangladesh will spoil its relations with India.

He said that Bangladesh has a long border with India and India also has its influence in the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, the new government of Bangladesh will adopt a realistic foreign policy and keep its relations with India normal.

‘No government in Bangladesh can afford to anger or quarrel with India, because there are some geographical realities that Bangladesh cannot ignore.’

 

But according to him, these relations will not be as warm or of the same nature as the Sheikh Hasina government and India had.

‘The two countries may sign a defense agreement’

Ikram Sehgal says that if Pakistan and Bangladesh want to move forward with their relations, they will have to adopt a visa and tariff-free policy.

He said that it is also possible that the two countries may sign a defense agreement in which an attack on one will be considered an attack on the other.

According to Ikram Sehgal, this could be the same type of agreement as that between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

It should be noted that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had signed a ‘strategic agreement of mutual defense’ last year, under which ‘aggression against one country will be considered aggression against both countries.’

Ikram Sehgal says that India’s policies are such that all its neighbors have complaints about it. Therefore, this is the reason that has brought Pakistan and Bangladesh closer to each other in recent times.

According to him, after the Bangladesh election results, he sees a new alignment in the region in which Pakistan, Bangladesh and China will be seen together on regional issues.

‘This is good news for Pakistan’

Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj of the Centre for International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University says that Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan have been good during the BNP governments.

Speaking to BBC Hindi’s Deepak Mandal, he said, ‘When the BNP was in power in Bangladesh between 1991 and 1996 and then between 2001 and 2006, it had good relations with Pakistan.’

He said that Islamic ideology is widely promoted in Pakistan, while the BNP also has a moderate policy in this regard. Therefore, if a coalition government of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were formed, Islamic fundamentalism could flourish, but apparently there is no possibility of this at present, but still it is good news for Pakistan.

Khaleda Zia's sympathetic attitude towards Pakistan was not viewed well in India, so if it happens now, what will be the impact on India?

On this, Sanjay Bhardwaj said that from 2001 to 2006, Tariq Rehman supervised all the operations of BNP. Even during this period, Tariq Rehman's policy towards Pakistan was soft while there was a working relationship with India, during this period there was not good harmony between Bangladesh and India.

Sanjay Bhardwaj says that India advocates an inclusive society and democracy, but the army plays an important role in BNP's policies and Islam is the center of its ideology.

According to him, India has been aspiring for a democratic, secular and nationalist Bangladeshi government. However, it is now unlikely that all of this will be seen in Bangladesh.

‘Challenges for India may increase’

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has congratulated Tariq Rahman on his election victory by telephoning him.

In his statement after the telephonic conversation, the Indian Prime Minister said, ‘I called Tariq Rahman and congratulated him on his resounding victory in the Bangladesh elections.’

Prime Minister Modi said that in the telephonic conversation, he reiterated his commitment to peace, development and prosperity for the people of Bangladesh and India.

Tariq Rahman also said that he was very happy to talk to Narendra Modi.

After the exchange of ‘pleasant words’ between Narendra Modi and Tariq Rahman, some experts say that India’s recent initiative to improve its relations with the BNP has yielded good results.

When Khalid Zia died this year, the Indian Foreign Minister came to Dhaka.

At the time, international relations experts believed that the condolence message from the Indian Foreign Minister and the Indian government paying tribute to the BNP chairperson was a clear indication of India’s stance on taking future relations forward.

Sheikh Hasina’s son Sajib Wajid had told the Indian Express that the Bangladeshi interim government’s growing rapprochement with Pakistan should be a cause for concern for India. “The Awami League government kept India’s eastern border safe from terrorism. Because before that, Bangladesh was used as a base for insurgencies in India.”

Happymon Jacob, professor of international relations at Shiv Nadir University and editor of India’s World magazine, wrote in the Hindustan Times that India’s rapidly deteriorating relations with Bangladesh were presenting various challenges.

He said that the risk of infiltration along the 4,000-km-long border between the two countries would increase.

According to him, Pakistan and China are taking advantage of the tension in the relations between India and Bangladesh and Pakistan's activities in Bangladesh have increased                                                                              

Many observers believe that it is really too much to expect that India will have a permanent relationship with any political party in Bangladesh.

Former Indian diplomat Somin Roy told the BBC that in international relations there is no such thing as permanent friends, similarly there are no permanent enemies.

According to him, in the form of the Awami League, there was a friendly government for India in Bangladesh, but now a new government is coming. But national interest is of the utmost importance, India will look after its national interest first.

He says that if India depends on the Awami League, then we will have no relationship with anyone else. It will not be right to do so and the Indian government will not do so either.

Somin Roy says that the direction of India's foreign policy is determined by 'strategic interests' and the same will apply to Bangladesh in the future. According to him, it is a simple matter that India will see that if its national interests are protected by making friends with any party other than the Awami League, then India will not hesitate to follow that path.