Washington-based analyst Michael Kugelman says that every statement made by Trump on India and Pakistan matters because he is the US president.

 

 

Washington-based analyst Michael Kugelman says that every statement made by Trump on India and Pakistan matters because he is the US president.

However, Kugelman also says that it would be wrong to overstate President Trump’s comments because they do not seem to be part of a regular policy.

Michael Kugelman adds that Trump considers himself a ‘deal maker’ and that is why he is interested in reducing tensions between Pakistan and India.

‘Improving relations between Pakistan and India is not a new goal for the US. Washington has always wanted better relations between New Delhi and Islamabad in principle.

However, according to Michael Kugelman, “the parties will not agree to talks as long as the focus is on Kashmir under the control of the other party, and therefore starting talks will be a problem.”He says that “there may be room for talks on other issues, but given the current diplomatic environment, it does not seem possible.”Ziba Fazli, a research analyst at the Stimson Center, told that US President Donald Trump is very proud of his “deal-making (solving issues through negotiations) skills and he puts this thinking forward for foreign policy and conflict resolution.”

Regarding Trump’s comments in Saudi Arabia regarding trade with Pakistan and India, Zeba Fazli said that “such comments are certainly an attempt to bring India and Pakistan to the negotiating table, but it remains to be seen whether the US and Pakistan will be able to negotiate in the current economic environment.

And then on May 14, during his visit to Saudi Arabia, he once again talked about a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. He said that ‘Pakistan-India relations are improving, it is possible that the United States will bring the leaders of these countries together.’

President Trump said that ‘I told the leadership of both countries to come and make a deal, to do some trade. Don’t launch nuclear missiles, trade the things that you make very well.’

While according to the British news agency Reuters, on May 15, while talking to American soldiers at a military base in Doha, Trump said that the fighting between Pakistan and India has ended, urging both countries to focus on trade instead of war, which both countries are happy about.

This sudden change in the situation and the statements by the United States, from indifference to trade in the dispute between India and Pakistan and even sitting together at the table, are being watched very closely in political and diplomatic circles around the world.

What does the US president want to achieve by bringing two traditional rivals from a potential nuclear conflict to discuss trade issues?

In this article, we have tried to find out from various observers and analysts how significant Trump's statements are and what does the US president want from Pakistan and India?

Later, in another message, he said, “I will work with you both to find a solution to the Kashmir issue.” Just 15 days earlier, Trump had described the rising tensions between India and Pakistan as “their own business.”

It should be remembered that after the Pahalgam attack on April 25, when tensions between Pakistan and India escalated, US President Donald Trump said in a statement regarding the tension between India and Pakistan that the two countries would ‘resolve the tension themselves.’

Similarly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted Pakistan and India on April 30 and ‘urged Pakistani authorities to cooperate in the investigation of this brutal attack.’

US Vice President JD Vance had earlier said in an interview with Fox News on May 1 that ‘we hope that India will respond to this terrorist attack in a way that does not create a wider regional conflict.’

While in an interview given on May 9 during the tension between the two countries, he said that the US will not intervene in the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan because ‘we fundamentally have nothing to do with it.’ We cannot tell India and Pakistan to lay down their arms.’

But then, on the afternoon of May 10, everything suddenly changed. First, US President Trump took credit for mediating and brokering a ceasefire between the two countries, and later he talked about doing business with Pakistan and India. In his statement, he also mentioned the resolution of the Kashmir issue.

The US President’s statement was described by political and social circles in India as interference in India’s internal affairs. But whether US President Trump is in Saudi Arabia, on a visit to Syria or in the United Arab Emirates, he has repeatedly taken credit for brokering a ceasefire between Pakistan and India.

First, on May 12, while speaking at the White House, Trump said, ‘On Saturday, my administration brokered an immediate and complete ceasefire between India and Pakistan. I believe this is a permanent ceasefire. This has ended a dangerous conflict between two nuclear powers.’

Trump said that he played a key role in this conflict through trade and tariffs.

Madiha Afzal of the Brookings Institution commented on this and said, “I think President Trump’s statements reflect a desire to take credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and to make a peace agreement in general.”

She says, “President Trump had also talked about resolving the Kashmir dispute in his first term, which India did not support. While taking credit for the ceasefire, Trump has praised both Indian and Pakistani leaders, and has spoken about both countries on an equal footing, which has angered India and pleased Pakistan.”

She says, “This is important because in recent years, US-India relations have become much stronger than Pakistan-US relations.”

While international affairs expert Swasthi Rao, speaking to BBC Hindi, said, “President Trump is always in a hurry to make a deal, which is why his foreign policy is full of confusion.”

She says, “Trump has very little understanding of history.” From the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iran deal, the Middle East situation to the India-Pakistan conflict, they are in a race to make deals and take credit. They want to win the Nobel Prize.’

Criticizing Trump’s behavior on the Pak-India conflict, Swasthi Rao says, ‘Not only the United States, but countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates were trying to mediate behind the scenes, but in this case, Trump has crossed a diplomatic line that should not have been crossed. This reduces trust between allies.’

She says, ‘Suddenly, Trump stopped the aid given to Ukraine for a few days. This gave a blow to European countries. The result was that these countries started strengthening their armies.’

She adds, ‘President Trump has created a imbalance. You cannot be sure what he will say to friends and enemies.’

On the other hand, Rabindra Sachdev, president of ‘The Image India Institute’, does not believe that Trump’s foreign policy is full of confusion.

He says, “Before Trump, the average US trade tariff was around 2.5 percent. While India’s was 12 percent, China and the European Union’s was around 8 percent. They increased it from 2.5 percent to 10 percent. People think they are showing flexibility on tariffs, but it is in America’s interest.”

Sachdev further says, “There were threats to stop military aid to Ukraine, there was a lot of commotion and finally look what happened, Trump made a huge mineral deal with Ukraine. This shows how he is working for America amidst all this.”

Rabindra Sachdev believes, “We should not go by the language used by Trump. We need to change our lenses to see America and Trump. Trump is redefining the power of the US president and he doesn’t care what others think, because he knows that America is a superpower.”