Iran news. John Bolton weighs in on Iran attack

 Iran news. John Bolton weighs in on Iran attack

A U.S. official says that a pair of deadly explosions in Iran, quote, looked like a terrorist attack and that the M.O. fits with ISIS. State media put the death toll at more than 100 people after two explosions tore through a crowd in the Iranian city of Kerman today. American officials were quick to say that it was not the US and that they had no indication either that it was Israel.

This is coming four years to the day since that US airstrike took out the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, Scott Soleimani. The bombs detonated today, four years after that near his tomb. Among the more than 100 were killed. Many were mourners who were gathered there for the anniversary. Iran's supreme leader is now warning that his country will have a harsh response to this.

And all of this is coming and this is the important context here, as Iran-backed Hezbollah has also been vowing a, quote, limitless response to a strike yesterday that killed a top Hamas leader in Lebanon. Another group backed by Iran, who the militias out of Yemen have launched at least 100 attacks on ships in the Red Sea just over the last month alone.

Few have as long of a history in the region as my next guest, John Bolton, who served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under President George W Bush, and also, of course, was the national security adviser to former President Trump. So, Ambassador Bolton, great to have you. You know, no one is claiming responsibility for this yet, but if you're in The Situation Room tonight, what would you be looking at? What would who do you think could be responsible for this? Well, there are a variety of possibilities.

I know. As you indicated, U.S. officials have pointed toward ISIS. I don't think that's plausible. I don't think ISIS has the reach to do that. I don't think it was Israel. That's not their style. They don't particularly gain anything out of this. This memorial ceremony was undoubtedly attended by many, many supporters of the regime in Tehran, which leads me to believe there's a pretty good possibility it was some kind of anti-regime force.

The ayatollahs are in a much weaker position, I think, than people believe, much weaker than at any point since the 1979 Islamic revolution. My guess is that said, or it's just a cynical device by the ayatollahs themselves, you know, they have immediately pointed the finger at Israel. And if they were looking for a pretext to take action against Israel directly, now they have it.

But, you know, we'll have to know more. I don't think you can make a definite response to it at this point. I mean, that latter part tensions have been so high in the region since October 7th. I mean, if that is something and that is what happened here, we don't know yet. No one has taken responsibility for this.

I mean, how worried would you be that that would escalate tensions to where we could potentially see Iran getting directly involved in what's happening between Israel and Hamas? Well, I think the intensity might go up, but I think the central point is Iran is involved in all of this activity. This region right now is one chessboard.

You have the hoodie rebels in the Red Sea, Hamas obviously in Israel. Hezbollah attacked northern Israel from Lebanon. Shia militia attacked American service members and civilian personnel in Syria and Iraq. And Iran just last week launched a drone strike against a ship in the Indian Ocean. All of this is being coordinated in Tehran.

I don't yet know what their full strategy is, but they are at war right now through their proxies and we are not deterring them. And I think the risk for more intense conflict is real, not because of anything that we're doing, but because of what we're not doing. Also on top of this, as I just mentioned before, I introduced you, you know, this killing of this Hamas leader, a senior Hamas leader, we're told in Lebanon that the US believes was Israel carrying out that strike.

What does that say to you about Israel's strategy here? Because I believe, you know, they've said, Wolf, we'll find these Hamas leaders wherever they are. I mean, I believe this would be the first time that we've seen one killed outside of Gaza. Well, perhaps in this particular conflict. But let's come back to what Israel has said since within days of the October seven attack, they intend to eliminate Hamas.

Now, a lot of people don't seem to believe that. I think this guy believes it in heaven or hell, wherever he is at the moment because they've taken him off the battlefield. And I think it is a signal that they are very determined. And all the talk about how the war is winding down, it's not winding down at all.

Look, our advisers told Israel at the beginning it took us 9 to 12 months in places like Fallujah and Mosul. We're three months into this. The Israelis have 6 to 9 months more to go. And guys are by that timetable. Interesting to hear you say you don't think it's close to over. Ambassador John Bolton, obviously many more discussions on this to come.

Thanks for joining us tonight. And I'm joined now here by the former deputy assistant secretary of defense and the executive director of the McCain Institute, Evelyn Farkas. I just wonder, did you hear what Ambassador Bolton said there, his assessment? I mean, we don't know. I think that's the first and foremost most important thing that we should say.

No one's claiming credit for this yet. But what do you make of who could be responsible and the significance of who it is that could be responsible for these two attacks? Right. Well, first of all, I don't I would not agree with him that this would be something cynical that the Iranian government would have launched against the people.

I mean, this is a really sensitive commemoration, you know, a celebration of this man, Memorialization of this criminal, frankly, international criminal. They wouldn't have done that. There may be some opposition inside Iran. But I think what's more likely is that it's some kind of Sunni terrorist organization like ISIS because this fits their modus operandi.

There were two explosions. The second one is more deadly. We've seen that all over the world conducted by ISIS and terrorist Sunni terrorist organizations. So that seems to me more likely. But what's more interesting to me, is the bigger picture issue here is somebody might be trying to send a message to Iran to stop it.

You know, as you heard from Ambassador Bolton, the Iranians are using their proxies in the Red Sea in Gaza, obviously in Lebanon, across the border into Israel. And there are Sunnis, you know, who are on the other side of this who want to stop Iran. And there may be states also who have or maybe using proxies as well, which leads to a do I don't want to point fingers, but clearly we know that Iran has historic enemies.

Now they've all kind of reconciled or they're all diplomatically getting along like Saudi Arabia and others in the Gulf. But there may be actors who want to send a signal to Iran to stop. I think. However, having said that, I don't know that a state would really condone this kind of action because of the target.

So a fascinating thing. We'll wait to see until we get more information. Thank you for your expertise and for joining us today. We'll have our guys. Really great to have you here on set.

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