Cooperation or potential conflict: How will the Trump-Xi meeting determine the direction of relations between the two major world powers?

 Cooperation or potential conflict: How will the Trump-Xi meeting determine the direction of relations between the two major world powers?

Security around Beijing's historic Tiananmen Square has been tightened in recent days, with rumors circulating on social media about a special parade or major event at the site.

China has been quietly preparing for the possible event at Tiananmen Square for the past several days. However, it now appears that China is ready to welcome US President Donald Trump.

Trump's three-day visit to China will include bilateral talks, a dinner and a visit to the Temple of Heaven (the imperial shrine where Chinese emperors and rulers used to pray for a better future).

Both Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are keen for a positive outcome from the visit. The meeting between the heads of two major powers is one of the most important in the world.

For months, US-China relations have been low on Donald Trump's agenda. Their focus has been on the ongoing war with Iran, other conflicts around the world, and domestic issues in the United States. However, this week, the situation seems to be changing.

The future of global trade, the growing tension over Taiwan, and the competition in modern technology will all be important issues in this meeting.

Economically, the ongoing trade war with the United States and the conflict in Iran may also cause difficulties for President Xi Jinping, but ideologically and politically, it may also prove beneficial for him in a sense. And because of this situation, he will feel himself in a strong position during his meeting with Trump.

The visit could lay the foundation for either cooperation or potential conflict in the coming year

China’s role in Iran

The war in Iran has now entered its third month, and China is quietly trying to play a mediating role. Beijing, along with Pakistan, has taken on the role of mediator in the war between the United States and Israel against Iran.

In March, officials in Beijing and Islamabad presented a five-point plan aimed at a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials have also been trying to persuade their Iranian counterparts to come to the negotiating table.

Although China is constantly demonstrating its power, there is no doubt that it wants to end the war.

When the US president was asked before leaving for his visit to China if President Xi could help broker a ceasefire in Iran, President Trump said that he thought the US might not need China.

China’s economy is already struggling with weak growth and rising unemployment. In addition, rising oil prices have pushed up the cost of goods such as textiles and plastics. In some industrial sectors in China, costs have increased by up to 20 percent.

Taiwan’s Future

The Trump administration’s statements on Taiwan have been inconsistent.

In December last year, the US announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which drew strong reactions from the Chinese government. However, Trump has played down the US commitment to defending Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory.

In response to a question about Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said, “They (China) consider it (Taiwan) part of their territory and it’s up to them to decide what to do with it.”

He also said that “Taiwan does not pay adequately for the security guarantees provided by the US and ‘doesn’t give us anything.’

Last year, he imposed a 15 percent tariff on Taiwan and accused it of stealing the US semiconductor industry.

Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that “the issue of Taiwan will be discussed during this visit, but we will try not to let it become a new source of tension between the two major powers.”

“We do not want any destabilizing events to occur in Taiwan or in any region of the Indo-Pacific,” he said. “I think that is in the common interest of both the United States and China.”

China has also made it clear that Taiwan will be its top priority in these talks. Last week, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Rubio by telephone that he hoped the United States would make “correct decisions” on the issue.

In recent days, Beijing has also increased military pressure on Taiwan by sending warplanes and ships around Taiwan on an almost daily basis.

Some analysts believe that Chinese officials may try to change the wording of the Taiwan policy agreed upon in 1982. The current US policy is that it does not support Taiwan independence, but the question is, can Beijing push for a more hardline stance? For example, saying that ‘the US opposes Taiwan independence?’

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Major trade talks

The United States and China appeared to be on the brink of a new trade war for much of 2025 that could shake the foundations of the global economy.

Trump has repeatedly raised and lowered tariffs on trade with America’s largest trading partner, sometimes reaching levels exceeding 100 percent.

China has responded by restricting exports of rare earth minerals to the United States and reducing purchases of American agricultural products, hurting farmers in states where Trump was elected.

 

Tensions between the two countries have eased significantly since Trump and Xi Jinping met face-to-face in South Korea in October last year. In addition, a US Supreme Court ruling in February, which limited the president’s power to unilaterally impose tariffs, has also put some control over Trump’s unpredictable actions on the trade front.

Nevertheless, the two leaders are expected to discuss a number of important issues during their meeting in Beijing.

The US president will urge China to increase its purchases of US agricultural products, while China will pressure the US to end a recently launched trade investigation into unfair trade practices that could give Trump the authority to reimpose higher tariffs on Chinese products.

 

The issue could prove particularly complicated for the US side.

According to Michael O'Hanlon, a defense and strategy expert at the Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution, "It will not be easy for the US to abandon its investigation into all these unfair trade activities given China's extensive and distorting trade policies."

According to Reuters, the Trump administration has also invited the heads of Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing and other major companies to participate in the visit.

Although China is now less dependent on the United States for trade than it was during Trump’s first term, President Xi Jinping will want the meeting to be a success, as it desperately needs stability in the global economy.

 

China is now a major trading partner of more than 120 countries, but Xi will still have to be careful not to appear overconfident during the meeting.

“If the visit ends amicably and Trump feels that he has been treated with respect, the delicate balance in the relationship between the two countries will remain intact,” said Ryan Haas, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “But if Trump feels ignored, he could change his policy.”

The Future of Artificial Intelligence

China is racing to become a leader in the technology of the future, and is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) and humanoid robots. These are sectors that Xi Jinping calls “new productive forces” and hopes will drive China’s economy forward.

 

However, many US policymakers believe that the Chinese government’s official strategy includes acquiring, or in some cases stealing, US technology to boost its own domestic industries.

This concern has led to restrictions on exports of advanced microprocessors, despite US companies expressing concerns and objecting to the restrictions.

The successful resolution of a complex issue involving the ownership and operation of the popular social media app TikTok by China is a positive development in the technology tensions between the US and China, where accusations and suspicions usually prevail.

Similar tensions are also being seen in the field of artificial intelligence, or AI, which has become perhaps the most important technology of the modern era. The issue is further complicated by the US accusations that Chinese companies like DeepSec are stealing US AI technology.

“The early signs of a Cold War are emerging in the field of artificial intelligence,” says Yingyi Ma, a fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. The White House has accused China of stealing US AI models on an “industrial scale,” while Beijing has reportedly tried to block Meta from acquiring Singapore-based Chinese AI startup Mains.

The real competition is not about who copies whose models, but who has the talent pool to develop the next generation of advanced AI.”

China’s advanced robots are also showing off their skills. Not only can these robots perform kung fu-style dances, they can also outrun humans in a marathon in Beijing.

Although Chinese companies have mastered the physical structures of these robots, many of them are still working on improving the “brains” of their new creations, or programming. To make the best robots, Chinese companies need advanced computer chips, and these chips come from the United States.

This is where Beijing could have an opportunity to use its power over rare earth minerals, a sector in which Trump is clearly interested.

China processes about 90 percent of the world’s rare earth minerals, which are essential for the production of modern technology from smartphones to wind farms and jet engines.

So there is room for a possible deal. The United States could receive Chinese rare earth minerals in return for advanced chips. This is somewhat like China’s own ‘Strait of Hormuz’, where it has the ability to block supplies at any time.

Despite the breadth of bilateral policy issues, President Trump’s visit will be extremely busy and brief, with various meetings and events scheduled for Thursday and Friday.

The two leaders may not have much time to move forward with agreements in a positive manner, but even this brief meeting could play an important role in determining the direction of negotiations and relations between the two ‘superpowers’ in the years to come.