Trump's
dilemma, Tehran's strategy and 'Middle East fury': Why is Israel in no hurry to
end the war against Iran?
Most people,
but not all, want the ongoing war against Iran to end as soon as possible. But
how will that happen and on whose terms? Opinion is divided on this question.
United
States
President
Donald Trump's objectives are unclear, ranging from limiting Iran's nuclear
program to accepting all American and Israeli demands and even the complete
overthrow of the Iranian regime.
So far, Iran
has neither surrendered nor appeared close to collapse. However, the 16-day
bombing campaign has greatly weakened Iran's military power.
It should be
recalled that in February, progress was being made on the nuclear issue in
talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva, brokered by Oman. Oman said
that Iran was ready to provide assurances that Tehran was not interested in
building nuclear weapons.
But Iran was
not ready to talk about its ballistic missile program or its regional proxies,
such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
For the
United States and its allies, the best outcome of the war would be the end of
the current regime in Iran, replaced by a peaceful and democratic government
that would not pose a threat to anyone. But that doesn’t seem likely to happen
until Monday.
An
acceptable outcome for the US would be for the war-torn Iranian regime to
change its behavior and end its support for militant organizations and groups
in the region. This seems unlikely after the election of Mojtaba Khamenei.
The closure
of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global oil prices, and concerns in the US that
the country is being dragged into another Middle East conflict will increase pressure
on President Trump to end the war. But if the regime in Tehran remains and
continues its behavior, it will be difficult for him to portray the war as
anything other than a failed attempt.
Iran
Iran wants
this war to end as soon as possible, but not at any cost, that is, not by fully
accepting America's demands.
Iran knows
that it probably has more strategic patience than Trump and that geography is
in its favor.
Iran has a
coastline longer than any other Gulf state and could threaten global shipping
in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global supplies pass.
The US
president's request for help in this matter has not been met with a positive
response. Britain, Europe and other countries do not want to put their own
navies at risk. Especially since they did not support this war from the
beginning.
Israel
Of the three
countries involved in this war, the United States, Iran and Israel, only one
country is in no hurry to end it.
Israel wants
to destroy as much of Iran’s ballistic missiles, storage depots, command and
control centers, including radars and Revolutionary Guard bases, as possible.
All of this
can be rebuilt as soon as the war stops, and Israel wants Iran to understand
how expensive this will be, since the Israeli air force can return at any time
and destroy it all again.
Israel sees
Iranian missiles and its suspected nuclear program as an existential threat. By
the start of this war, Iran was developing its own missiles and drones. Tehran
provided Russia with Shahid drones, which have caused widespread destruction in
Ukraine.
Iran has
also enriched uranium to a level that exceeds civilian nuclear needs. All of
this adds up to a threat to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
government.
Middle
East
Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman thought they
could live comfortably with the Iranian regime across the sea.
But now they
are angry that despite opposing the war, they are facing Iranian drones and
missiles on an almost daily basis.
In just a
few hours on Monday, the Saudi government said more than 60 projectiles were
intercepted.
“A red line
has been crossed,” a Middle Eastern official told me. “Now there is zero trust
between us and Tehran, and there can be no resumption of relations with them.”
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