Why did President Trump back down on taking military action against Iran?

 

Recently, it seemed that US President Donald Trump was considering military action against Iran. This fear was further heightened when the US issued an advisory regarding Iran.

The US also issued orders to withdraw some troops from its ‘Al-Udeid’ air base in Qatar. Al-Udeid air base is the largest US air base in the Middle East.

Trump even said that the US would take strong action if Iran executed protesters, however, last Thursday evening, reports began to come out of Iran that such strong measures as executions against the arrested protesters were not being considered.

Following these Iranian statements, Trump told the media that ‘we have been told that the killings in Iran have stopped and there are no plans to execute protesters.’ Immediately after this, the US revised the high security alert advisory for Al-Udeid air base and lowered the alert level.

Reuters news agency also reported, citing a source, that US military aircraft removed from the base on Wednesday are now gradually returning.

After Trump’s statement and these steps, most observers analyzed that the extremely tense situation in the Middle East is now gradually moving towards normalization.

However, the next day, the news of the famous newspaper ‘The Telegraph’ gained global attention, claiming that the US military was not ready to attack Iran.

BBC Persian reported, citing the British newspaper The Telegraph, that ‘US officials were secretly warned that the US military was not ready to attack Iran due to its limited powers and capabilities.’

Why is it difficult to attack Iran?

‘But the US has not made any military preparations for it. In fact, US forces around Iran have been reduced in the past few months, their powers have been limited. There has not even been a US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East since October 2025.’

 

And that simply means that the US cannot attack Iranian government targets or Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on its own.

 

To do so, the US would have to use air bases in Middle Eastern countries, and Iran has already warned these countries.
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The US has another method, namely the use of the B2 Bomb, which was used to target Iran's nuclear facilities last year. However, it should be remembered that after this US attack, Iran claimed that its nuclear facilities were not completely destroyed in that attack.

Dr. Fazlur Rehman also says that 'the US had withdrawn its aircraft carriers from the region in October, which gave Iran some relief. But now the US is once again sending its aircraft carriers to the Middle East. It is not necessary that they will be used in the event of an attack. The United States can easily use military air bases in Iran's neighboring countries.
Why is it difficult to attack Iran?’

‘But the US has not made any military preparations for it. In fact, US forces around Iran have been reduced in the past few months, their powers have been limited. There has not even been a US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East since October 2025.’

And that simply means that the US cannot attack Iranian government targets or Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on its own.

To do so, the US would have to use air bases in Middle Eastern countries, and Iran has already warned these countries.

What will be the future of Iran’s ‘disguised’ Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

‘War of rhetoric’: Why were ‘250’ mosques set on fire during anti-government protests in Iran?

The Iranian Revolution and the Story of Two Turbulent Weeks: Ayatollah Khomeini’s Secret Relations with the US and the Story of ‘Promises’

Violent Demonstrations and US Threats: ‘Intense Pressure on the Government in Iran, but Immediate Change Unlikely’

The US has another method, namely the use of the B2 Bomb, which was used to target Iran’s nuclear facilities last year. However, it should be remembered that after this US attack, Iran claimed that its nuclear facilities were not completely destroyed in that attack.

Dr. Fazlur Rehman also says that ‘The US had withdrawn its aircraft carriers from the region in October, which gave Iran some relief. But now the US is once again sending its aircraft carriers to the Middle East. It is not necessary that they will be used in the event of an attack. The US can easily use the military airbases of Iran’s neighboring countries.’

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Iran’s geographical location has historically been a challenge

According to Atlas of War, Iran is surrounded by strong natural borders that are a major obstacle to the enemy and are a natural defensive wall for Iran.

The country is surrounded by the Caspian Sea (Qazvin Sea) to the north, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the south, and deserts and mountains to the east and west. The Zagros Mountains lie to the west and the Alborz Mountains lie to the north.

These pose significant challenges for any enemy army. Historically, these mountains have often thwarted invading armies.

Iran and Iraq went to war in the 1980s. Saddam Hussein's forces invaded Iran in 1980. However, the Zagros Mountains prevented the Iraqi army from making much progress in Iran.

Saddam Hussein's plan was to first capture Ahvaz (an important oil region) and then cross the mountains into Iran, but this plan failed completely.

Nature proved to be a formidable obstacle and the war lasted for eight years. In the end, no one won the war and both sides claimed their own.

Similarly, if someone wanted to attack Iran from the east, they would have to cross vast deserts like Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir. These deserts can pose difficulties for any major military operation.

In addition to mountains and deserts, Iran is also connected to the sea. The Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is very narrow and is controlled by Iran.

It is the world's most important sea route. About 20 percent of the world's oil passes through this narrow passage. Therefore, it is an important weapon for Iran in any major conflict.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz could allow Iran to cut off the world's oil supply, and according to observers, this fear is why Iran's enemies hesitate to attack it.

Iran's military power

, Image captionIn 2022, General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of the US Central Command, said, "Iran has

According to Global Firepower, Iran is among the 20 largest military powers in the world. It ranks 16th out of 145 military powers.

Iran has 610,000 active duty military personnel and 350,000 reserve forces. The total number is about 960,000.

While the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a separate unit that specializes in unconventional warfare. Iran has 551 fighter jets.

Iran is among the best countries in the world in unmanned aerial vehicles. Iran has 147 naval assets, including 25 submarines.

According to the Iran Watch report, Iran has the largest missile stockpile in the Middle East.

In 2022, General Kenneth McKenzie of the US Central Command said, “Iran has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles. This does not include the number of cruise missiles.”

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran’s defense budget in 2024 was $7.9                                     billion, which is about two percent of the country’s GDP. In 2023, Iran’s military spending was about $10.3 billion.

 

Iran ranks 34th in the world in military spending. Iran has not released figures for 2025, but it plans to increase its defense budget by 200 percent to $16.7 billion.

Although there is a huge gap between the military power of the United States and Iran, the United States is the most powerful country in the world, ranking first in the Global Firepower Index.

The United States has 1.328 million active and on-duty troops and 799,000 reservists. The United States has consistently ranked first in the Global Firepower Index since 2005.

The United States also ranks first in the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which estimates that the US defense budget in 2024 will be $997 billion.

Although the military power of Iran and the United States is very different, analysts believe that despite this, an attack on Iran is not that easy.

Afshun Ostover, associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, said, “The reason for not attacking Iran is not that Iran’s opponents are afraid of Iran. Rather, the reason is that they believe that any war against Iran will be a very serious war.

Indian defense analyst Rahul Bedi believes that ‘Iran has missiles and drones to fight the United States, but Iran’s fighter jets have been inactive for a long time and its naval power is also average.

He says, ‘If there is an attack and Iran retaliates, it is possible that it will use missiles against American and allied targets. On the other hand, the United States has considerable military power and it also has the support of Israel. Israel is well aware of the Middle East region and can help the United States in every way.’