Trump's threat, the 'return of the Shah' and Israel: Where does the military stand on the recent anti-government protests in Iran?
According to
experts and eyewitnesses, the ongoing anti-government protests in Iran have
entered a phase that is the first time such a thing has happened in the country
since the 1979 revolution.
At a time
when large numbers of Iranians were seen participating in anti-government
demonstrations in several cities, US President Donald Trump has threatened that
if Iranian authorities try to deal harshly with the protesters, then ‘the United
States is ready to help.’
In response,
Iranian officials have said that they may also target American interests and
allies in the region.
So how do
the recent demonstrations and the government’s response differ from past
protests in Iran?
Scale
Experts
believe that the spread of these protests is extraordinary. Ali Khorsandfar
says, “The protests have spread to small cities whose names people have never
heard of before.”
Iran
It’s not that Iran hasn’t had anti-government
protests before. There were protests against election fraud in 2009. However,
these were limited to large cities. In addition, the protests in 2017 and 2019
were limited to areas of the country that are considered poor.
The recent
protests may be similar to the protests that took place in 2022, when protests
against the government began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.
However,
experts say that the current protests are on a larger scale and are steadily
increasing in intensity.
The
Pahlavi element
The 2022
protests lacked any leadership and quickly lost momentum.
In contrast,
the current protests have seen the exiled Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former
Shah of Iran, trying to influence the anti-government protests from outside the
country. This is perhaps one reason why the recent protests have lasted so
long.
The demand
for the return of the Pahlavi family has also been heard more than ever in
these protests. It should be remembered that Reza Pahlavi declared himself the
Shah of Iran in exile. He is in the United States.
Young people
in Iran can be seen on social media encouraging each other to participate in
these protests. And the volume of protests in major cities like Tehran also
shows the effectiveness of the messages coming from Reza Pahlavi.
Analysts
believe that the presence of a familiar figure has strengthened the protesters'
demand that there is an alternative after the fall of the current government.
However,
other analysts believe that support for Reza Pahlavi does not mean that there
is a widespread desire for a return to the monarchy in the country. According
to them, it is an expression of frustration with the current government.
Trump's
threat
The most
important thing about the recent protests is America. This year, it seems that
the anti-government protests have American support. US President Trump has
threatened to target government officials, which has never happened before.
In 2009,
during protests against election fraud, slogans called "Obama" were
heard in Iran, calling out to the former US president, "Are you with us or
against us?"
Obama later
said that he regretted not supporting the anti-government protesters in Iran
more enthusiastically.
Iranian
President Masoud Peshmerga has said that the recent protests are being
"used by Iran's enemies." But the bigger problem for him is that
Iran's number of friends is dwindling.
Iran has
lost support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria, while Hezbollah in Lebanon has also
been weakened by Israeli operations.
Israel
The recent
protests come after a 12-day war with Israel, when the US also attacked Iran.
Journalist
Abbas Abidi believes that this gave “Iranian authorities an opportunity to
unite the people, but the regime failed to capitalize on the war.”
Some experts
believe that the war with Israel damaged the reputation and credibility of the
Revolutionary Guards, which is considered the country’s main military force.
Where
does the military stand and what does the government want?
On the
fourteenth day of nationwide protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s military
issued a strongly worded statement warning of a “conspiracy” by Israel and
“terrorist groups” to “affect public security.”
The military
also declared that it would work with “other armed forces” to protect “national
interests, the country’s strategic infrastructure, and public property.”
The military’s most rec
ent statement did not specify how it would cooperate with “other armed forces” to control the security situation. As a result, it is useful to review past patterns of military intervention during public protests to understand the possible ways in which this cooperation might occur.
During the
November 2019 protests, which resulted in more deaths than previous street
protests, specific information was released about how the military intervened
to deal with protesters.
A week after
the protests ended, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, then head of the National Security
Council, announced the army’s role in ‘transportation, logistics and support’
for law enforcement agencies and security forces.
The interior
minister in Hassan Rouhani’s government, while explaining the army’s logistical
support, also referred to the operations of the force’s armed units: ‘In cases
where we lacked personnel, we brought in the army to protect sensitive places
and areas so that the police force could be freed up and move to different
locations.’
These
statements made it clear that the reason for the army’s intervention in the
Islamic Republic was ‘a lack of manpower’ and that their duty was to ‘protect
sensitive places and areas’ so that law enforcement agencies and other security
forces could be freed up to deal directly with the protesters.
A recent
statement from the Islamic Republic's military, calling for the assistance of
"other armed forces" to protect "strategic infrastructure and
public property," suggests a possible similar mission: Army personnel
would take over the task of guarding sensitive installations and government
buildings until security forces could take to the streets.
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